The correction in auto sales was overdue as a sustained period of above trend sales suffers payback for pulling forward sales, but this has been compounded by the sharp contraction of consumer credit and a consequent down scaling of product mix (although also driven by ecological considerations).

The market is hoping that global auto sales will trough in the next few months, as consumer credit increases and new incentive schemes are introduced.

Barring another economic downdraft, a stabilisation at historically low levels appears likely through 2009, but the demand trajectory for 2010-12 is very unclear.

But for the OEMs, all their joker cards have been played through the first years of the first decade of the 21st century, and we now confront the very real prospect of a filing of the one of formerly Big 3. This very prospect raises more questions about the ability of the auto industry to deal with such an event, especially given the track record of the airlines and steel companies in the past.