As the global economic crisis continues to bite deeper, capital remains constrained, and local populations become more disgruntled, the idea of European unity runs the risk of unraveling, putting severe pressure on the euro. Investors will not return to Emerging Europe anytime soon; credit and equity markets will accordingly deteriorate further. If the crisis deepens (which we very much expect), pulling down European banks and damaging the balance sheets of pension funds and insurance companies, there will be more than just a coincidence that it was the collapse of an Austrian bank with large Eastern exposures in 1931 that truly made the Great Depression a protracted and deep economic drought.
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